Update of Weekly Minimum Expected for Euro

Yesterday’s Trading:
By the end of Thursday, the euro/dollar had closed up. On the one hand, the close of the day was at 1.1375: a positive thing for the sellers for them to continue the fall to 1.1275. On the other hand, the reasons for the dollar’s strengthening after weak US labour market data are unclear.

Euro/Dollar Trading Close to Daily Trend Line

Yesterday’s Trading:
On Monday the euro/dollar spent the day in a 1.1374 – 1.1419 price range. The euro was consolidating underneath the LB. The dollar was hanging on to its position after Friday’s weak NFP on expectations that wage growth in the US will continue and the Fed will raise rates another two times this year. Judging by the futures for the rates, the Fed will put their rates up one more time, but no earlier than September.

Pinbar Formed on Daily

Yesterday’s Trading:
By the end of Tuesday, the euro/dollar was down. In the first half of the day the USD was down against the majority of key currencies, excluding commodity currencies. The euro/dollar was up to 1.1615 due to a fall in European stock markets and a growth in Eurozone March producer prices. The price was above 1.16 for no longer than 20 minutes. The weakening of commodity currencies ended up stronger than any news factor.

EUR/USD's advance contained by weekly PP

Pair's Outlook
As expected, EUR/USD's development, prior to the ECB event later on Thursday, remained relatively calm on April 18. Yesterday the added value amounted to only 12 pips, while the similar situation being observed on early Tuesday morning. We see the weekly pivot as the first noticeable resistance at 1.1327 and in the short-term the pair is likely to terminate around here. We would allow for a medium-term slippage in the direction of 1.12, where the monthly pivot coincides with the 55-day SMA and weekly S1 for the moment.