On Friday, the 9th of November, the event calendar is busy with important data releases. The event of the day is the UK GDP and Industrial Production data release. Moreover, there are other data to keep the eye on, like Industrial Production data from France and Germany, PPI and Core PPI data from the US together with the UoM Consumer Sentiment data release. There is a speech from FOMC Member Randal K. Quarles scheduled later in the day as well.
GBP/USD analysis for 09/11/2018:
The UK GDP data are expected to grow from 0.0% to 0.1% on a monthly basis and from 0.4% to 0.6% on a quarterly basis. On the other hand, Industrial Production is expected to decrease from 0.2% to -0.1%.
The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. While GDP announcements generally conform to expectations, unanticipated changes in this metric can move markets. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus, better than expected GDP figures are generally bullish for the GBP, while negative readings are generally bearish.
Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the data are published. The market is now in a corrective cycle after reaching the level of 1.3175. The price has broken below the technical support at the level of 1.3041 and is heading towards the 38% Fibo retracement at the level of 1.2991 (so just below the round number of 1.3000). The momentum is below its fifty level, so the bears are getting stronger on its way down. If the 38% Fibo is violated, the next target is seen at the level of 1.2940 - 1.2920, which is a technical support zone.