Trading plan Forex for 14.11.2018


The October data from China had a mixed overtone. Retail sales failed (8.6% YoY vs. 9.2%), but industrial output went well (5.9% vs. 5.8%), and municipal investments were slightly better (5.7%) vs 5.5%). USD / CNY today is 0.1% down to 6.9480.

AUD erased the initial increases after good data from Australia and AUD / USD fell back from 0.7235 to 0.7220. The consumer confidence index increased by 2.8% in November after a 1.0% drop in October. The wage index in Q2, as expected, increased by 0.6% q/q.

USD / JPY can not break away from the level of 114. The initial estimate of GDP for Q3 from Japan pointed to a 0.3% q/q, in line with market expectations. In annualized terms, the decline amounted to 1.2% against the 1.0% forecast Even after clearing data from the impact of natural disasters, the data suggests a slowdown.

There are no clear signals from the stock market. Japanese Nikkei225 gained 0.16% while China's Shanghai Composite loses 1.0%.

Today's session will be rich in macroeconomic events. The global investors have already got to know the GDP of Japan and China's industrial production, and we still have information about Germany's GDP, the Eurozone GDP, inflation in the United Kingdom and the United States and the speeches of FED members scheduled later in the day: Randal K. Quarles, Robert Kaplan, and Jerome Powell.

GBP/USD analysis for 14/11/2018:

Negotiations on the Brexit case are coming to an end, and Theresa May's government must not only reach an agreement with the European Union, but also get the parliament's consent. The leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) - the largest party in Northern Ireland - announced that he would oppose any agreement that would weaken Britain. Northern Ireland will not agree to the terms of trade being agreed by Brussels. The desire to reach an agreement can not cover the interests of countries. Analysts believe that although Theresa's cabinet May accept the draft Brexit agreement, it will be harder to convince the UK parliament to accept it as well.

Today's Consumer Price Index data from the UK are scheduled for release at 09:30 am GMT and the global investors do not expect a change in the monthly basis (0.1% expected) but expect an increase from 2.4% to 2.5% on a yearly basis. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has filled the gap between the levels of 1.2948 - 1.2958 and was able to retrace 61% of the last drop. Currently, the price is consolidation slightly in the narrow range between the levels of 1.2948 - 1.3041. The momentum remains positive, but really barely as the global investors prefer to wait for the CPI data release before making the move in either direction. In the case of a further move up, the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3056.

Trading plan Forex for 14.11.2018