On Monday, the 15th of October, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should pay attention to the data from the US in form of Retail Sales, NY Fed Empire State manufacturing Index and Federal Budget Balance. One more important data will be released form Canada in the form of The Senior Loan Officer Survey.
EUR/USD analysis for 15/10/2018:
Retail Sales data are an aggregated measure of the sales of retail goods over a stated time period, typically based on a data sampling that is extrapolated to model an entire country. In the U.S., the retail sales report is a monthly economic indicator compiled and released by the Census Bureau and the Department of Commerce. The report covers the previous month and is released about two weeks after the month-end. Comparisons are made against historical data; year-over-year comparisons are the most-reported metric because they account for the seasonality of consumer-based retail.
Today, the market participants expect to increase the sales from 0.1% to 0.7% on the monthly basis and another increase from 0.3% to 0.4% on a yearly basis. If the data will meet or beat the expectations, it will be another partial justification for the Fed to hike the interest rates in the near future.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After breaking above the level of 1.1600 for a while and establishing a new local high at the level of 1.1610, the price has started to fall again towards the technical support at the level of 1.1543. This level was event slightly broken, but not that much a now the price is bouncing. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.1515 - 1.1503. Please notice the overbought market conditions, that will facilitate the bearish strength to push the prices lower. Weaker than expected Retail Sales data might, however, resume the internal short-term bounce towards the resistance at the level of 1.1610 and beyond.