EUR/USD. December 25th. Trading system "Regression Channels". Long-term forecasts - not for the euro.


4-hour timeframe

EUR/USD. December 25th. Trading system "Regression Channels". Long-term forecasts - not for the euro.

Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 42.0276

The second trading day of the week in the foreign exchange market is officially considered a holiday in honor of the celebration of Christmas. Markets are closed today and will open only tomorrow. Nevertheless, we will carry out a certain analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair. The first thing to say is that it is still too early to talk about the completion of the downward trend in the euro. Yes, the pair did not renew at least this year for a month and a half, but this does not mean that 2019 will be better for the euro. It is still unknown how the epic will end with Brexit, which is also related to the European Union. It is not clear when the ECB will take the path of tightening monetary policy. It is unclear whether the Fed is ready to fully complete the course on raising the key rate or simply slow it down.

It is not clear whether Jerome Powell will remain the head of the Federal Reserve and how he will communicate with Donald Trump, who, according to rumors, is ready to get rid of an intractable economist by any means. It is not clear how Trump will act this time to implement his plans and at the same time lower the rate of the American currency. Thus, conclusions should be made as new macroeconomic information becomes available. Technically, there is now something like a wide flat. The pair completed the Murray level "8/8", which is a strong resistance. Therefore, downward movement is possible.

The next support levels:

S1 - 1,1383
S2 – of 1.1353
S3 - 1,1322

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1,144
R2 - 1,1444
R3 - 1,1475

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair is trying to resume the upward movement. Tomorrow it will be possible to consider long positions with the targets 1,1444 and 1,1475 since the indicator Heiken Ashi turned up.

Sell orders can be considered not earlier than fixing the price below the moving average line. In this case, the pair may fall to the levels of 1.1353 and 1.1322.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustrations:
Senior linear regression channel – blue line unidirectional movement.
Youngest linear regression channel – purple line unidirectional movement.
CCI-blue line in the indicator window.
Moving average (20;smoothed) - blue line on the price chart.
Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.
Heiken-Ashi indicator, coloring bars blue or purple.