On Wednesday the euro/dollar stuck with the forecast: the euro closed near the LB. The EUR couldn’t manage to strengthen against the dollar due to weak German stats and a fall in the euro/pound cross.
Main news of the day:
- At 09:00 EET, Germany is publishing external trade data;
- At 14:00 EET, the UK will let us all know its interest rate decision, the way in which the MPC members voted and their asset purchasing program, as well as information on the current Bank of England monetary policy;
- At 14:30 EET, the ECB’s report form their monetary policy meeting will be out;
- At 15:30 EET, the US is publishing data on unemployment benefit applications for the week ending 4th October, 2015;
- At 21:00 EET, the BoE’s Mark Carney will speak;
- At 21:00 EET, the FOMC’s minutes will be out.
On Thursday there are some important events planned for the currency market. First will be the Bank of England’s base rate decision, then the ECB minutes and those of the FOMC. At 21:00 EET the BoE’s Mark Carney is giving a speech. It’s difficult to say which way the market will go today. If we look at the technical side of things, we could see it shooting up to 1.1300 if we also see a rise in the euro/pound cross. If we go off fundamental news, the euro only has one way: down towards parity.
- Intraday target maximum: n/a, minimum: n/a, close: n/a;
- Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 124 points (4 figures).
The euro/dollar has broken away from the LB and is trading around 1.1258. A break in 1.1275 will shove the euro towards 1.1290. A rise in the cross could see a growth all the way to the 90th degree at 1.1316. The sellers’ target is 1.1200.
The euro/dollar is trading underneath the trend line. Today’s situation should be decided. The technical side of the hourly is saying the euro is going to rise, but the fundamental data is saying the opposite.
The euro/dollar is still trading in a sideways between 1.1086 and 1.1459 and so we are still waiting for it to leave this channel.