The euro yesterday jumped from a minimum with the dollar from 1.0600 to 1.0656. The rate then fell from the 45th degree to 1.0592 and after trading closed in Europe, the rate renewed to 1.0643. It’s quite difficult to explain such behaviour since there was an unplanned US Fed meeting at 18:30 EET yesterday to discuss US interest rates. Moreover, the oil market was swinging after news came out of Saudi Arabia that the government there is ready to undertake the necessary measures in order to secure price stability on the oil market. The outcome of the US Fed meeting is still unclear.
The US stats disappointed dollar buyers. Housing sales in the US secondary market were down from 5.55 to 5.36 million. The business activity index for the country was also down from 54.1 to 52.6.
Main news of the day (EET):
- 09:00, German definitive Q3 GDP;
- 11:00, German IFO business optimism, economic expectancies, current situation assessment indices for November;
- 11:05, RBA’s Glen Stevens to speak;
- 12:00, parliamentary hearing on inflation in the UK and BoE’s Carney, Haldane and Forbes set to speak;
- 13:00, UK report on November retail sales from CBI;
- 15:30, US reassessed Q3 GDP data;
- 17:00, November consumer confidence indicator and manufacturing index from Richmond Fed.
There’s a nice little set of news out today with quite a few speakers ready to let us know what they’re thinking. Don’t forget, this week will be a short one for the US with Thanksgiving set to take place on Thursday. I’m saying that there’ll be a rise of the dollar against the euro.
- Intraday target maximum: 1.0664, minimum: 1.0567 (current Asian), close: 1.0585;
- Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 103 points (4 figures).
The euro’s fall has slowed. The daily candle for the euro and pound are showing upturned candles. However, I think that the market isn’t going to turn around immediately and, before heading upwards, the dollar will once again renew minimums against both euro and pound.
The euro/dollar is trading around 1.0627. By putting these two local minimums together with a line, we get a support at 1.0584. I think that a rebound will take place at 1.0567. If there’s a ricochet from 1.0567/70 towards 1.0620 or above, then we’ll have a correction on the cards.
The euro bulls have updated the minimum. A rebound from 1.0592 is playing against the sellers. They need to act, otherwise the euro will quickly return to 1.0730. According to the cycles, I’ve a bear phase switching into a bull one since 20th November. Now I’m waiting for a flipped price pattern on the hourly.
The sellers are outpacing the buyers every day. The CCI indicator is in the zone below at 100. The closest target is still at 1.0520.