On Thursday, the euro/dollar shot upwards without updating the minimum. The fixation of profit led to a fall in the dollar rate against many pairs. I did allow for such a scenario. The dollar weakened in the second half of the day after weak US Q3 GDP results and the same for the housing market numbers in the country. The euro/dollar renewed to 1.0985.
The preliminary number for US GDP in Q3 of 2015 was set at 1.5% (forecasted: 1.6%, revised: 3.9%).
The index for incomplete housing sales in the US fell by 2.3% (forecasted:1.0%, previous: -1.4%).
Main news of the day:
- At 09:00 EET: German retail sales;
- At 12:00 EET, Eurozone October CPIs and September unemployment level;
- At 14:30, Canadian August GDP, US base index on personal expenditure and changes in personal income levels for September;
- At 15:45, the Chicago October PMI;
- At 16:00 EET, Reuters/Michigan October consumer confidence index and FOMC member Williams is speaking.
In Asia the euro/dollar has shifted its maximum to 1.0997. The balance line was reached and in doing so the euro fell to 1.0965. I suppose that the euro is set to fall against the dollar until the end of the day. Of today’s news: it’s worth picking out Canadian GDP and Eurozone inflation figures.
- Intraday target maximum: 1. 0997 (current Asian), minimum: 1.0915, close: 1.0930;
- Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 119 points (4 figures).
The euro/dollar is trading by the LB. The MA line is heading downwards, so on my forecast I’ve gone for a weakening of the euro. If we see a break of 1.1005, stave off sales.
The euro/dollar spent Thursday in a correctional phase. The oscillator stochastic has flipped upwards, but the CCI is still minus 100. The target zone for the sellers it 1.0807-1.0818 (minimums from 27th May and 20th July). Now to the weekly.
The line has been broken, now we’re waiting for a shift below 1.0818.