The message of US President Trump was without major surprises and the rest of the market went through the night in peace. The declines in USD appeared after Trump's words suggesting that the investigations carried out against him pose a threat to economic development.
On the theme of the wall on the border with Mexico, Trump did not announce the introduction of a state of emergency, which some feared. Trump expressed optimism in the subject of progress in trade talks with China.Today in the morning EUR / USD falls to 1.1380 after disappointong data on orders from Germany. In December, new orders fell by 1.6% m / m, while an increase of 0.3% was expected. One of the good news is the revision of the November reading from -1.0% up to -0.2%. Lack of fresh impulses dampened volatility in the Asian stock market. Japanese Nikke225 rose by a modest 0.14 percent. China and several markets remain closed due to holidays
On Wednesday, the 6th of February, the event calndar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on Factory Orders data from Germany, Trade Balance data form the US and Ivey Purchasing Managers Index data from Canada. There is a speech from BOC Deputy Governor Timothy Lane scheduled later today as well.USD/CAD analysis for 06/02/2019:
The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index from Canada are scheduled for release today at 03:00 pm GMt and the global investors expect a decrease from 59.7 to 56.4 points in the reported month.
The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an economic index which measures the month to month variation in economic activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers from across Canada, and is prepared by the Richard Ivey School of Business. The PMI is provided in two formats: unadjusted and seasonally adjusted. It shows responses to one question: "Were your purchases last month in dollars higher, the same, or lower than the previous month?". A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease.
Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is now in a pull-back after the low at the level of 1.3068 has been made. The bulls have managed to push the price towards the important technical resistnace zone between the levels of 1.3158 - 1.3164 and now await the Ivey PMI data. A better than expected data might push the prices back down towards the level of support at 1.3126. On the other hand, a worse than expected data can push the prices towards the nearest techncial resistane at the level of 1.3178 and 1.3200.
The market is in the right level to enter the trade and the trend-following daytraders should try to open sell orders as close to the level of 1.3164 as possible. The target for the shorts is seen at the level of 1.3126 and then at 1.3087 and 1.3068. Worse than expected data will help to push the prices lower, so it is worth to wait for the release.