On Friday 29th of June, the event calendar is busy in important data releases. Germany will post Retail Sales and Import Price Index data, Unemployment Rate and Unemployment Change. Switzerland will present KOF Economic Barometer data. The UK will post GDP, Current Account and M4 Money Supply data.
Eurozone will present Consumer Price Index data. Canada will issue Gross Domestic Product and Raw Materials Price Index data. The US will post Personal Spending, Personal Income, PCE Core, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and UoM Consumer Sentiment.
EUR/USD analysis for 29/06/2018:
The EU summit made up an agreement on the immigration crisis. This creates a clear demand for the single currency. The achievement of a consensus is not only positive in itself but also gives hope that cooperation with the new Italian government will also be possible on other sensitive issues. In addition, the risk of deepening the government crisis in Germany is falling
The Retail Sales data from Germany disappoints. The indicator showed dynamics -2.1% on monthly basis and -1.6% on yearly basis. In the latter case, the market consensus was at 1.9%, so the difference is huge and adds more doubts regarding the possibility of ECB interest rate hike on the next meeting.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The euro does not react clearly as the rate remains close to the early-high peaks. More important for investors are positive reports from the EU summit. The market is still closed inside of the range between the levels of 1.1719 - 1.1509 in the last trading day of the week, month and the quarter. The sentiment remains positive, so there is still a chance for another move towards the 61% Fibo at the level of 1.1719. The strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook.