The strong upward movement in the first half of this month allowed gold to reach the weekly CZ of 1303.28-1299.88, which led to the emergence of a proposal. Fixing purchases at this stage is the best strategy.
Yesterday, there was a test of weekly CZ at 1303.28-1299.88 with the formation of the "false break" pattern. This made it possible to enter a short position and close the purchase. It is important to note that the weekly control zone coincides with the range of the average weekly move, which makes them decisive for the entire upward movement. For further growth, a deep correction may be required and the probability of a transition to a downward impulse increases.
Working against the current bullish impulse implies keeping sales open yesterday and adding volume after fixing the price below the 1/4 WCZ. In this case, the downward movement will continue until the 1/2 WCZ at 1285.88-184.18.
The probability of forming an alternative ascending model is 30%, which makes purchases from current grades not profitable. The pair has already gone up the average weekly range, thus the decline in the value of gold will make it possible to earn in more cases on the course. It is important to understand that the evidence of an uptrend is not always equal to its infinity.
Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.