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Forecast and Technical Analysis of the Gold Futures on April 15, 2016

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Gold hits 55-day SMA, eyes rebound from here

Pair's Outlook
The bullion posted another ultra-negative session on Thursday, by slumping as low as 1,229 by the end of US trading. Yesterday it eroded the weekly pivot point and the 20-day SMA resting around 1,232/35, thereby refocusing our attention to the formidable demand is face of the 55-day SMA at 1,225. We estimate no immediate failure of the bulls in recovering from here, meaning some bullishness is possible today. It is also indicated by strongly long weekly technical indicators. However, any descent below the moving average is going to affirm that gold maintains a clear medium-term selling mode.

Forecast and Technical Analysis of the Gold Futures on April 14, 2016

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Gold is losing ground for three days

Pair's Outlook
After a relatively calm Tuesday, the bullion commenced a major bounce from three-week highs yesterday and closed the US session around the monthly pivot point (1,241.50). However, a selloff has continued this morning on the back of growing risk appetite worldwide. Now the weekly pivot is under bearish pressure, but the bulls hope the 55-day SMA (1,223.48) along with the weekly S1 (1,221.33) will be capable of limiting those negative changes. Otherwise, we would not rule out a slump towards the March low at 1,208.06.

Forecast and Technical Analysis of the Gold Futures on April 13, 2016

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Gold takes break after touching 1,260

Pair's Outlook
Tuesday's trading range of gold prices was very tight, compared to Monday's one. XAU/USD tested the crucial 1,260 mark, namely the weekly R2, but was eventually forced to come back and close the US evening session near 1,255. A second unsuccessful attempt to breach the 1,260/63 resistance cluster, which is also backed by the February high, would diminish the outlook. The bears are starting to prepare for an attack on a very dense demand between 1,237 and 1,221. Only by closing below the latter (55-day SMA) the bullion will be able to reestablish the negative outlook, which is backed by the daily technical indicators.

Forecast and Technical Analysis of the Gold Futures on April 12, 2016

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Gold sets ground for continuous recovery

Pair's Outlook
Monday trading was finished with sharp gains for gold, as the price closed above the first weekly resistance line at 1,257.50. However, the bulls failed to extend this rally up to the second supply area placed between 1,260 and 1,263. We expect it to happen this week, but we are not ruling out a correction lower on Tuesday after some traders fix profit. It will be more than enough to hold the price above yesterday's low/opening level of 1,239. Among additional bearish risks, the daily technical studies are still maintaining the "sell" view, but dense demand areas below 1,235 should prevent XAU/USD from deep collapses.

Forecast and Technical Analysis of the Gold Futures on April 7, 2016

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Pair's Outlook
As long as yellow metal continues to ignore a very important technical cluster at 1,224/30, we are going to maintain a mostly sideways outlook for prices. We have not seen a two-day consolidation below the weekly pivot point or above the 20-day SMA since March 22. Another mixed picture emerged for technical indicators, as daily ones are bearish and weekly studies are pointing to the North. However, quite soon the bullion is expected to meet the upward-sloping 55-day SMA (1,211), and if this line fails at provoking a rally, then downside risks will inevitably grow.

Forecast and Technical Analysis of the Gold Futures on April 5, 2016

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Pair's Outlook
Yellow metal hovered predominantly in the red territory on Monday, but the bears were only capable of pushing the price down to the 1,215 mark and not any below it. Even though we are seeing bullish pressure on early Tuesday, the rally is expected to be contained by a dense resistance cluster between 1,224 and 1,230. Up there, we have got the weekly pivot point, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of Dec-Mar uptrend and the 20-day SMA. The base scenario suspects a correction lower from here, but in case the bulls overcome this supply, the next immediate target will become the 1,241 mark represented by the monthly pivot point and the weekly R1.

Forecast and Technical Analysis of the Gold Futures on April 4, 2016

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Pair's Outlook
Technical trading of the bullion remains uncertain at the moment, because there are several important resistances and supports surrounding the present spot price of 1,217. From the upside, the weekly pivot point at 1,224 is the most immediate supply, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the Dec-Mar uptrend and the 20-day SMA at 1,227/30. Still, we suspect that the market will attempt to push gold prices lower in the near-term. However, XAU/USD will inevitably hit a tough cluster of demand levels and the first support is going to be placed at 1,205 (weekly S1; 55-day SMA).

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