By the end of Thursday the euro had strengthened against the US dollar. The path from 1.1235 to 1.1326 was difficult since a lot of important events were planned for the FOREX market on that day (ECB, BoE and Fed minutes).
Before the results of the BoE’s MPC votes were made clear, the pound/dollar and the euro/dollar renewed their session maximums. After which, the ECB published its minutes from its last meeting and the euro/dollar fell to 1.1237.
The regulator expressed its readiness in the minutes to expand QE. However, before doing so, the ECB would like to keep an eye on market volatility.
After the FOMC’s minutes were published, the euro reset its maximum and returned to 1.1270. Members of the open market committee expressed their concern over the growing risk of an economic slowdown. They believe that the high rate of the dollar is prohibiting inflation from reaching 2%. They don’t yet intend to put up interest rates. .
Main news of the day:
- 11:30 EET: the UK is publishing its external trade report;
- 15:30 EET: a Canadian labour market report is out;
- 17:30 EET: the Bank of Canada’s report on economic conditions and prospects for business development is out;
- 20:30 EET: The Chicago Fed’s Charles Evans will give a speech.
The market situation for the key pairs is ambiguous. If we go off the daily time frame, the USD could weaken still more against the key pairs. The list of news which I’ve highlighted could have an effect on the market if there are any real strays from the forecasted numbers.
- Intraday target maximum: 1.1331, minimum: 1.1255, close: 1.1300;
- Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 124 points (4 figures).
From a 1.1329 maximum, the euro slid to 45 degrees. The price is close to the balance line. In my forecast I’ve gone for a rebound to the trend line at 1.1255 and then a growth to 1.1331.
The eurobulls have tested the solidity of the trend line. It’s a bad sign for the sellers because it could be passed today.
The weekly situation is still the same: the euro/dollar is still trading in a sideways between 1.1086 and 1.1459 and we are still waiting for it to leave this channel.